Energy Crisis in the UK
I believe the most important untold story in the UK is our impending energy crisis. No one’s talking about it, not government, not the media, not the enviormentalsits, no one. Here is my analysis:
In the UK we generate our electricity supply from the following mix 2003 data (1) :
Natural gas 38%
Coal 35%
Nuclear 22%
Other renewables 2%
Oil 1%
Hydro 1%
Other 1%
Our ‘fleet’ of 14 nuclear power stations is aging with many facing decommission. The schedule will see seven decommissioned by 2010 with only three remaining in 2020 and one in 2023 (2). This represents a loss of approximately 20% of our current electricity supply within 15 years.
Considering natural gas, from the 1980’s natural gas was the fuel of choice due to the low capital costs of building gas turbine power plants, the relative abundance of North Sea natural gas and low CO2 and sulphur emissions when compared with coal. The North Sea gas fields are ageing. The rate of extraction from the North Sea is falling. The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology project North Sea gas extraction to fall such that we are only 50% self sufficient by 2010 falling to 20% by 2020 (3). This all but removes our local supply of natural gas for both electricity production, representing over 30% of our current electricity supply and home heating, 70% of which uses gas.
CO2 emission reductions may also force the modernisation or closure of older coal-fired power plants.
Taken together at least 50% of our current electricity supply is threatened within 15 years. Economic growth over this time is expected to increase electricity demand by 10-15% further exaggerating the shortfall.
The proposed solutions I am aware of are weak; expansion of renewables to 10% by 2010 and 20% by 2020 is likely, by present measures, to fall well short, importing gas from overseas is fraught with technical, political and economic difficulty and new nuclear build is expensive, unpopular and carries security and waste disposal issues that are far from solved. Global uranium supply is also wholly inadequate to supply a world switching en mass to nuclear.
Although I have concentrated on a 2020 timescale here, shortfalls will occur far sooner and the nature of the energy industry is that of extremely long lead times with new nuclear build for example expected to take 10-15 years from agreement.
I have written to my MP and several others who I believe have particular interest in energy and will report back here on their response.
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1 DTI Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES 2004), Commodity Balances Table 5.1
http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/inform/energy_stats/electricity/
2 DTI Nuclear power generation development and the UK industry
http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/nuclear/technology/history.shtml
3 The Future of UK Gas Supplies, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/POSTpn230.pdf
June 10th, 2005 at 8:03 pm
V. Succinct Chris. I hope you will be paying for the new pair of underpants I need. I will send this to my MP, though without much hope it will penetrate her Blairite noddy cranium
June 12th, 2005 at 10:26 pm
you wrote what i was thinking
glad to see others seeing the problems facing us
August 16th, 2005 at 8:15 am
Please have a look at http://www.after-oil.co.uk/nuclear.htm
For my address &c see title page of website
December 21st, 2005 at 3:43 pm
Very nice reading… well recommended by a friend. One thing missing was possible solution or sensible measures to avoid this crisis. I always try to imagine how life will be like if our oil and gas resources run out. Well… I believe like what was observed during industrial revolution and political struggle to achieve relative industrial and political stability, things start to regress and time starts moving backwards…
April 20th, 2006 at 11:57 am
Chris,
Thank you for the heads up.
I see that King Coal (Richard Budge) has recommissioned Hatfield on the back of a long term contract.
Buy French Nuclear Power Stations off the Shelf.
Regards,
John Kelly
July 27th, 2006 at 8:20 am
I would like to draw your attention to my website, which is closely related to yours. It also promotes renewable energy. Would it possible for us to swap links ??
July 27th, 2006 at 8:23 am
Please may I draw your attention to my website www.heatmyhome.co.uk, which is closely related to your website subject, and offers alternative energy through solar and renewable energy. Many people are now waking up to this, and are taking action to protect themselves and their family.
March 1st, 2007 at 9:45 am
If you have looked into solar energy as a method for heating your home, panels are usually the first things that come up.
There are, however, other unique methods.
The Solar Heating Aspect You Have Never Heard of Before
The power of the sun is immense. The energy in one day of sunlight is more than the world needs. The problem, of course,
is how does one harness this power. Solar panels represent the obvious solution, but they have their downside. First,
they can be expensive depending upon your energy needs. Second, they do not exactly blend in with the rest of your home.
Passive solar heating represents a panel free method of harnessing the inherent energy found in the sun for heating
purposes. If you come out from a store and open the door of your car in the summer, you understand the concept of passive
solar heating. A wide variety of material absorbs sunlight and radiates the energy back into the air in the form of heat.
Passive solar heating for a home works the same way as the process which overheats your car in the parking lot.
May 30th, 2007 at 10:19 am
That’s a pretty good article, the percentages show how the government chooses to side step the fact that global warming is on the increase. There’s a new wind farm development in my area and many of the locals are opposed to it, so I do have a little sympathy for the government who are trying to fight a losing battle with the general public due to the “nimby” factor, but I believe tidal energy will play a big role in the future of energy production in the U.K.
October 21st, 2007 at 2:51 am
Chris,
I’m curious. You posted this in 2005. Do you still think this is true that no one is talking about the energy crisis that’s coming?
I still don’t see it getting the attention I would like, but it seems to be sneaking into the media here and there.
Nathan
February 3rd, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Thanks for sharing
March 1st, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Good article, my company promotes renewable energy systems as well. I think in more recent times the message about the energy crisis is starting to get across.
December 8th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
mlm leads