Rough Times Ahead
18 miles off the East coast of Yorkshire on Thursday 16th Feb there was an accident, an explosion and fire on a gas platform. 2 people were injured and 31 of the 58 staff evacuated to shore. This accident on the Bravo gas rig could have far greater ramifications over the weeks ahead.
The platform is a key component in the Rough gas storage facility, the UK’s long term gas storage facility which currently is holding 18TWh (71%) of the UK’s total 26TWh of stored gas.
The Rough storage facility has a deliverability rate of 455GWh (1.5 billion cubic feet (bcf)) of gas per day and a total storage capacity of 30 TWh (100 billion cubic feet (bcf)) of natural gas at pressures of over 200 bar. It is currently the largest gas storage facility in the UK, able to meet approximately 10% of current national peak day demand.
Centrica
We learnt on Monday that after inspection the Rough facility would remain offline for a month. The 1.5bcf = 42.5 (or 41.7 using 455GWh and 10.9GWh/mcm) million cubic meters (mcm) per day isn’t going to be available until late March.
“Following this initial visual inspection we currently estimate that it is unlikely that Rough will be available for one month,” said Centrica Storage in a statement.
Reuters
At this point we need to consider how our daily gas demand is met. Gas can be delivered from the following sources:
| Beach and Isle of Grain (LNG) | ~310mcm |
| Continental Interconnector | ~40mcm |
| Long Term Storage | 41.7mcm for 40.4 days |
| Medium Term Storage | 26.1mcm for 19.3 days |
| Short Term Storage | 48.3mcm for 3.3 days |
| Source |
Total maximum flow rates without Rough:
424mcm for 3.3 days
376mcm for 16 days
It should also be noted that the Beach and IoG figure of 310mcm and Interconnnector figure of 40mcm have not been maintained that high for more than a couple of days at a time so far this winter. It is probably more reasonable to assume these delivery rates can’t be maintained that high for long. I also doubt the 3 days of short term storage would be drawn down to maintain business as usual consumption. If demand creates a situation where flow rates would drop by ~50mcm in a couple of days due to short term storage exhaustion demand will be curtailed to prevent that happening. That’s when industry packs up and electricity supplies are threatened.
- Yesterday (Mon 20th Feb) was quite mild and demand was only 345mcm.
- Today is not a particularly cold day yet daily demand is forecast at 371mcm.
- Tomorrow demand is forecast at 386mcm - requiring drawdown from short term storage?
The closure of Rough has left the UK extremely vulnerable. After a few cold days we won’t be able to meet business as usual demand on anything colder than a mild February day and even that will require significant imports. The weather is expected to turn cold with some snowfall over the remainder of this week with continental Europe also feeling the cold we may have difficulty maintaining the high Interconnector flow rates we need.
As always the situation depends on the weather, as we move into March the chances are it will get warmer but this should not be counted on. The coldest week of the year could quite easily be the first week in March, with Rough offline demand could not be met during such a week.
This post was written by Chris Vernon
This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 21st, 2006 at 8:44 pm and is filed under Electricity. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
February 21st, 2006 at 11:30 pm
Worrying Post: though as you say- VitalTrivia
Idle thought: I wonder if this will have a bearing (if any) on Gazprom’s bid for Centrica…probably not important right now.
Cheers
Stef
PS Answer the Question???……Ahhhhh
February 22nd, 2006 at 9:31 am
Chris,
Well done for bringing this to our attention. The issue of energy seems to have lept up the political (and more importantly the media) agenda. I hope more people will be drawn to this site to find the unadulterated facts behind the situation.
Thanks again
February 22nd, 2006 at 2:28 pm
I don’t know if you saw a news report on the BBC where 12% of the gas used in the whole of Wales was by one aluminium plant!
Keep drinking that fizzy pop kids!! Our culture is threatened…keep drinking it!!!
February 23rd, 2006 at 3:44 pm
Hello from the Colonies.
From my vantage across the Atlantic, it seems that your media does a much better job of covering energy (in)security issues. I scan our papers daily in vain for any serious discussion of depletion, scarcity, or [gasp] reduction of wants [/gasp].
But how well does the coverage convert to public discourse in the UK? How well informed is the average person? Do they hold any implausible or indefensible views in light of the science of finite resources?
For what it’s worth, the majority of my fellow Yanks that I broach the subject with respond with looks of utter ignorance. They truly have absolutely no idea of how energy is delivered, much less any concept that our energy foundation is slowly but inevitably growing weaker.
Curious in Florida
February 24th, 2006 at 12:13 pm
ref the JESS report for this winter Page 3
It is evident that Max beached delivery is very much in the balance. Shirley too close for comfort ?
Of course the price increase which is being introduced PDQ will have an effect on demand…. is the Gubment sanctioning the increase to do just that ? … and then blame the scheming heartless “furriners”.
To be followed by a Windfall Tax ?
March 14th, 2006 at 9:28 am
Chris,
just seen the news this morning (14th March) about the anouncement of a by the National Grid that we might not have enough gas. Citing Rough as a major issue. Looks like your ananlysis was ahead of the curve again.
Guy