Vital Trivia

One of the many Internet forums read regularly is
www.housepricecrash.co.uk, unsurprisingly most of the discussion concerns bearish assessments of the UK housing market and economy but ever so often energy is discussed. Over the last year there have been several lengthy debates on peak oil and the possible impacts on the economy and housing market. This quote is from one such debate, I liked the straight, clear, matter of fact argument from Smurf1976:

OK, let’s get straight to the point.

The supply of both oil and gas to the industrialised countries is increasingly a serious problem due to the underlying global resource base.

Over the short term we worry about production problems due to technical faults, prices and so on.

Over the medium term we contemplate all manner of radical schemes to bring gas from afar and convert all manner of substances into “drop in” substitutes for products presently produced from crude oil.

At best, these medium term solutions might buy us 3 decades of time. That is the highly optimistic scenario.

Realistically, it is likely that ongoing shortfalls in the supply of gas and oil will be with us from now on. Perhaps one country builds a new pipeline to fix a gas shortage but that only buys time and only for that country. Meanwhile another country somewhere else in the world runs into gas supply problems. Oil is much the same - we drill new wells only to see others dry up.

From a “big picture” perspective the shortage of oil and gas is (1) real and (2) now. The only sensible option is to simultaneously pursue energy conservation, efficiency and the development of all practical sources of energy.

We are not in a situation of being able to choose between wind or nuclear or coal. Realistically on a worldwide basis we need wind AND nuclear AND coal AND geothermal AND hydro etc. That is the only way we have any chance of overcoming the oil and gas problem and even then it’s going to be an awfully bumpy road to the post oil and gas era.

Energy planning needs a fundamental shift away from NIMBY, BANANA, competition and everything else which dominates it today. Instead we need a fundamental test - “Will this project reduce dependence on oil and or gas?”. That’s it. A simple question. Does it move us forward or not? If it does then, within reasonable limits, we need to build it whether it’s a geothermal power plant or a new rail line that is under consideration. We have no choice but to adapt to a post oil and gas world so it’s time to get on with it rather than trying to delay the inevitable.

This post was written by Chris Vernon